Yes , best loser wins! And winners have to run…. I made this turning point 90 days ago after almost 3 years of full time trading…. Understand small cap world as you described…. Onto large caps now. Only way for me to find liquidity points …. Trade the SPY extreme’s…. They sell at top of the macro channel and buy at the bottom…. Much to learn in big caps.. thanks for taking me on this journey!
This is great. Focusing more on these days recently has really leveled up my trading.
Question for you though: doesn’t this come from experience more so than data tracking? Understand you track offerings etc, but this isn’t the only type of play where larger players are taking advantage.
Love the Substack, one of my favorite weekly reads!
This is a very interesting article but its a little tough to conceptualize without an example. A future article with a step by step explanation of one of these trades would be immensely valuable for me and I'm sure all your subscribers. Thanks for your work, its very good and though provoking
Good stuff. I feel the same way when you said I make money day to day but miss out on larger opportunities. The other day was RETO which I minimized. I feel like I minimize massive opportunities regularly and now I see I need to do a little better to get myself to 7 figures.
Trying to wrap my head around agenda trading and also keeping in mind your latest tweet mentioning success "if you know that data". Not too sure what data you are refereing to but wanted to present this to see if I am on the right track:
BLPH: in 2022 they burned through 18 million in cash and I am estimating they only have 5 million left or less. The 5 million direct offering will only last a quarter at most. What they need to do raise about 15 million and can do it with a stock dilution. I mean it is not rocket science but trying to get an idea of when they are going to do that for an ideal entry for short. I am thinking if they can get the stock to $8 they could offer 187k shares. I do not know the math as to what that would do to share price but the main idea here is to see if this is the type of analysis that you do for agenda trading and good data you reference?
so just checked dilution tracker and guess what? current raisable amount is 14 million! and not too sure what a baby shelf is but dilution tracker says the stock needs to be above 7.76 to not be restricked by it. Stock got to 7.50 today. I would suspect there is more upside :) I guess nice info to have had today in order to really go heavy knowing what price they needed the stock to be over before doing an offer. BTW I would have never thought to do any of this research if I didn't come across your twitter and substack. Thank you!
Yes , best loser wins! And winners have to run…. I made this turning point 90 days ago after almost 3 years of full time trading…. Understand small cap world as you described…. Onto large caps now. Only way for me to find liquidity points …. Trade the SPY extreme’s…. They sell at top of the macro channel and buy at the bottom…. Much to learn in big caps.. thanks for taking me on this journey!
This is great. Focusing more on these days recently has really leveled up my trading.
Question for you though: doesn’t this come from experience more so than data tracking? Understand you track offerings etc, but this isn’t the only type of play where larger players are taking advantage.
Love the Substack, one of my favorite weekly reads!
This is a very interesting article but its a little tough to conceptualize without an example. A future article with a step by step explanation of one of these trades would be immensely valuable for me and I'm sure all your subscribers. Thanks for your work, its very good and though provoking
Look up his YouTube Channel! He's got countless examples on small caps
Thank you for sharing your knowledge!
Good stuff. I feel the same way when you said I make money day to day but miss out on larger opportunities. The other day was RETO which I minimized. I feel like I minimize massive opportunities regularly and now I see I need to do a little better to get myself to 7 figures.
I love this! Thank you for sharing your thoughts
This is great understanding
This post was insightful, thank you Lucus!
Trying to wrap my head around agenda trading and also keeping in mind your latest tweet mentioning success "if you know that data". Not too sure what data you are refereing to but wanted to present this to see if I am on the right track:
BLPH: in 2022 they burned through 18 million in cash and I am estimating they only have 5 million left or less. The 5 million direct offering will only last a quarter at most. What they need to do raise about 15 million and can do it with a stock dilution. I mean it is not rocket science but trying to get an idea of when they are going to do that for an ideal entry for short. I am thinking if they can get the stock to $8 they could offer 187k shares. I do not know the math as to what that would do to share price but the main idea here is to see if this is the type of analysis that you do for agenda trading and good data you reference?
so just checked dilution tracker and guess what? current raisable amount is 14 million! and not too sure what a baby shelf is but dilution tracker says the stock needs to be above 7.76 to not be restricked by it. Stock got to 7.50 today. I would suspect there is more upside :) I guess nice info to have had today in order to really go heavy knowing what price they needed the stock to be over before doing an offer. BTW I would have never thought to do any of this research if I didn't come across your twitter and substack. Thank you!