11 Comments
User's avatar
Jeff Lynn's avatar

Yes , best loser wins! And winners have to run…. I made this turning point 90 days ago after almost 3 years of full time trading…. Understand small cap world as you described…. Onto large caps now. Only way for me to find liquidity points …. Trade the SPY extreme’s…. They sell at top of the macro channel and buy at the bottom…. Much to learn in big caps.. thanks for taking me on this journey!

Expand full comment
Holloway's avatar

This is great. Focusing more on these days recently has really leveled up my trading.

Question for you though: doesn’t this come from experience more so than data tracking? Understand you track offerings etc, but this isn’t the only type of play where larger players are taking advantage.

Love the Substack, one of my favorite weekly reads!

Expand full comment
MLH21's avatar

This is a very interesting article but its a little tough to conceptualize without an example. A future article with a step by step explanation of one of these trades would be immensely valuable for me and I'm sure all your subscribers. Thanks for your work, its very good and though provoking

Expand full comment
Kilian's avatar

Look up his YouTube Channel! He's got countless examples on small caps

Expand full comment
@elMatador's avatar

Thank you for sharing your knowledge!

Expand full comment
Vaughn Braeuninger's avatar

Good stuff. I feel the same way when you said I make money day to day but miss out on larger opportunities. The other day was RETO which I minimized. I feel like I minimize massive opportunities regularly and now I see I need to do a little better to get myself to 7 figures.

Expand full comment
Ivy's avatar

I love this! Thank you for sharing your thoughts

Expand full comment
SAMI AJRAM's avatar

This is great understanding

Expand full comment
DemNutdnanai's avatar

This post was insightful, thank you Lucus!

Expand full comment
RWA's avatar

Trying to wrap my head around agenda trading and also keeping in mind your latest tweet mentioning success "if you know that data". Not too sure what data you are refereing to but wanted to present this to see if I am on the right track:

BLPH: in 2022 they burned through 18 million in cash and I am estimating they only have 5 million left or less. The 5 million direct offering will only last a quarter at most. What they need to do raise about 15 million and can do it with a stock dilution. I mean it is not rocket science but trying to get an idea of when they are going to do that for an ideal entry for short. I am thinking if they can get the stock to $8 they could offer 187k shares. I do not know the math as to what that would do to share price but the main idea here is to see if this is the type of analysis that you do for agenda trading and good data you reference?

Expand full comment
RWA's avatar

so just checked dilution tracker and guess what? current raisable amount is 14 million! and not too sure what a baby shelf is but dilution tracker says the stock needs to be above 7.76 to not be restricked by it. Stock got to 7.50 today. I would suspect there is more upside :) I guess nice info to have had today in order to really go heavy knowing what price they needed the stock to be over before doing an offer. BTW I would have never thought to do any of this research if I didn't come across your twitter and substack. Thank you!

Expand full comment