Lukas, about point number 6: this difficulty on traditional trend following strats can become a two edged sword, right? Like, if breakouts are failing more often --> people stop buying breakouts --> it comes back into working, so is there a point that one should not completely change their backtested approach against periods, provided you have the data to back yourself up, and just size down?
This is obviously one alternative while others might include finding better spots to enter, but I’m wondering what are your thoughts on this.
Congratulations on the article! I’m reading the complete turtle trader and I’d recommend to anyone wanting to dive deeper in Richard Dennis history and the turtles.
The point Richard was making is very much to describe the relationship between odds and crowded trades/strategies. Meaning the more something is observed, the less likely it is to occur.
In essence, because everyone knows something should happen it becomes crowded and the edge or the inefficiency is worked out.
Thank you a lot for the article, enjoyed it a lot!
Lukas, about point number 6: this difficulty on traditional trend following strats can become a two edged sword, right? Like, if breakouts are failing more often --> people stop buying breakouts --> it comes back into working, so is there a point that one should not completely change their backtested approach against periods, provided you have the data to back yourself up, and just size down?
This is obviously one alternative while others might include finding better spots to enter, but I’m wondering what are your thoughts on this.
Congratulations on the article! I’m reading the complete turtle trader and I’d recommend to anyone wanting to dive deeper in Richard Dennis history and the turtles.
The point Richard was making is very much to describe the relationship between odds and crowded trades/strategies. Meaning the more something is observed, the less likely it is to occur.
In essence, because everyone knows something should happen it becomes crowded and the edge or the inefficiency is worked out.
Thanks you for the post. Maybe you should also train a group of traders!! That would be amazing
Great Book.
Great read! The chapter on Dennis in Market Wizards is also worth a read.